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Sunday 09 01 UPDATE for Hurricane Dorian - Catastrophic Category 5 Storm With Ferocious Winds ☘ Hoey Team ☘ eXp Realty
Dorian struck the northern Bahamas Today; Sunday and continues to menace the southeastern coast of the United States from Florida to the Carolinas.
☘ Please find links to a number of useful resources, tips, and tools below; please stay safe ☘
Latest Update and projections on Dorians Path - Photo from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
An ‘extremely dangerous’ hurricane that could inundate coastal areas.
As Hurricane Dorian struck the Abaco Islands in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said that the maximum sustained winds around the eye of the “extremely dangerous” storm had reached 185 miles an hour, making it a “catastrophic” storm with “devastating winds.”
By 2 p.m. Eastern time, the storm had made landfall at Elbow Cay and was moving westward fairly slowly — 7 miles an hour — over Great Abaco; it was expected to continue near or over Grand Bahama later Sunday or early Monday, forecasters said. Storm surges of as much as 18 to 23 feet were possible, enough to swamp many low-lying areas of the islands, and as much as 25 inches of rain could fall before the storm passes.
By late Monday or early Tuesday, forecasters said, the storm could be near the Florida coast.
Hurricane-force winds extend 45 miles outward from the center of the storm, the center said, with tropical storm-force winds as much as 140 miles outward.
The National Hurricane Center said on Sunday that there were wind gusts exceeding 220 miles an hour — three times the wind speed to qualify as a hurricane. Officials said the storm was the strongest on record in the islands.
The northern Bahamas are catching the worst of the storm.
Hurricane Dorian aimed its fury at the northern reaches of the Bahamas archipelago on Sunday, sending residents scrambling to find shelter as they braced for rising waters and torrential rains.
Prime Minister Hubert Minnis said Saturday that 73,000 residents and 21,000 homes would be affected by the storm.
The Bahamas prides itself on withstanding powerful storms, but this hurricane brings greater dangers than most. Meteorologists warned of a storm surge that would raise water levels as much as 18 feet to 23 feet above normal, as well as the possibility of more than two feet of rainfall in some areas. Much of the island nation is low-lying, and some areas could be completely flooded.
“We will pray and hope for the best, but plan for the worst,” Michael Pintard, the Bahamian minister of agriculture, said in a text message on Saturday evening.
Residents hunkered down in schools, churches and other emergency shelters, but there was concern that some would try to brave the storm in their homes. “Some people are saying that they’re not going to go because they have nowhere to go,” Frankie Fleuridor, an activist who works with Haitians living on Great Abaco, said on Saturday.
“It’s tough for people in the shantytowns,” he said, because their plywood houses are not built to withstand hurricane-force winds and are prone to flooding. Mr. Fleuridor said that he had rented hotel rooms for the most vulnerable people, but could not afford to do more. “I’m maxed out,” he said. — Elisabeth Malkin
The storm is expected to turn northward, raking the United States coast.
Forecasters expect the storm to creep nearer to the coast of Florida through Monday and then swing northward, paralleling the mainland coast. Though it may not make landfall all week if it follows that track, its strong winds and heavy rains, storm surge and punishing surf could still have the potential to do major damage in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.
The National Hurricane Center posted a hurricane watch on Sunday for the Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to the Brevard-Volusia county line north of Titusville, meaning that hurricane-force winds are expected there within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning extends north from there to Sebastien Inlet, and storm watches were posted for Lake Okeechobee and for the coast south of Deerfield Beach to Golden Beach.
“Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are possible,” the center said.
Florida is on edge, hoping the storm will just miss land.
Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida warned on Sunday that while forecasts now suggested that Hurricane Dorian may veer north offshore, a slight nudge could bring its powerful eye to landfall somewhere along Florida’s Atlantic coast.
“We’ve got to prepare for that eventuality,” Governor DeSantis said, speaking from the state’s emergency operations in Tallahassee, the capital. He was surrounded by a small group of grim-faced public officials.
Even if the storm stays offshore, the state will probably still experience dangerous storm surge and some flooding. At least four counties have begun evacuating coastal communities, with several more expected to follow soon. Mr. DeSantis suspended tolls on a number of major highways to facilitate the movement of coastal residents inland.
Mr. DeSantis sought to put Dorian’s sustained winds of 185 m.p.h in perspective: “That’s significantly stronger than Hurricane Andrew, which reached landfall at 165 m.p.h. It’s significantly stronger than Hurricane Michael, 160 mp.h. South Florida has had one hurricane in our history — the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 — that reached that level, and that was total destruction. The strength of this storm cannot be underestimated.” — Patricia Mazzei
President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago private club is under a mandatory evacuation order.
One of the Florida counties ordering evacuations on Sunday was Palm Beach County, which ordered the evacuation of residences in low-lying and coastal areas of the county, including the barrier island where Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump’s private club and favorite winter destination, is located. The order took effect at 1 p.m. Eastern time and also includes areas with vulnerable types of residential construction, like mobile home parks.
The eastern half of the county is included in a long stretch of the Florida coast now under a hurricane watch, indicating that Hurricane Dorian’s hurricane-force winds are expected within 48 hours.
“If you choose not to evacuate to a shelter, please evacuate miles, not hundreds of miles,” the county said. “With the unpredictable nature of Hurricane Dorian, evacuating north is not recommended.” — Patricia Mazzei
Why is damage from the hurricane so difficult to predict with precision?
Experts can see Hurricane Dorian’s compact eye and near-circular symmetry clearly in satellite images, signifying a ferocious storm. What is much harder for them to discern is whether the storm will it be a disaster for the United States?
Computer models on Sunday showed a range of possible tracks Dorian could follow, with landfall in Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas, or nowhere. And if the hurricane does make landfall, its intensity at that point — whether it will still be a Category 5 or substantially weaker — is equally uncertain.
So nearly the entire southeast coast of the United States, from South Florida through the Carolinas, is at risk — but in the end, many of those places may well see little or no impact. How should all the people along this long coastline deal with this confusing, indefinite forecast?
Adam Sobel, a professor at Columbia University and director of the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate, explains why meteorologists must speak in probabilities, not certainties, and focus on the worst-case scenarios rather than the best cases.
It comes down to this: It is better to over-warn than to under-warn. An alarm that turns out to have been needless is just an annoyance, but an alarm that was needed but never issued can have deadly consequences.
People are vacationing at Disney World despite storm warnings.
Families arrived in Orlando this weekend carrying Disney-themed suitcases, wearing Mickey Mouse ears and closely monitoring Hurricane Dorian’s path as they plowed ahead with long-planned vacations to Walt Disney World.
The theme park complex is mostly operating normally, though its Blizzard Beach Water Park was closed as a precaution on Sunday.
Cierra and Louis Gosselin, who live in Bermuda, booked their nine-day vacation at Disney World more than seven months ago for their wedding anniversary and were especially excited to visit Galaxy Edge, a new Star Wars-themed section of Disney World that opened on Thursday.
The couple has been keeping a close eye on the latest hurricane models and said they were hopeful Dorian would not have much effect on their visit. But just in case, they rented a car and are ready to evacuate if necessary.
“I think we’re a little less intimidated because we live in Bermuda,” said Ms. Gosselin, an accounting consultant. “We’re more accustomed to the hurricanes, and we know what to do.”
She joked that her biggest fear was that the park’s replica of the Millennium Falcon, the Star Wars spacecraft, would be swept up by the storm.
Daniel and Kristin Russell arrived in Orlando on Saturday from Grand Rapids, Mich., with their 4-year-old daughter, who was particularly excited for the “Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Party” event.
Mr. Russell said the family had considered canceling, but decided to go ahead with the trip when forecasts began to indicate that the hurricane may not make landfall in Florida.
“We had lots of friends and family that told us it might not be good to go, but we kept watching it, and we don’t think it’s going to be a problem now,” he said.
Some visitors were getting out just in time. Inside the Orlando International Airport, the Magic of Disney store was bustling with people snagging one more souvenir before boarding a plane home. They tried on hats with Minnie Mouse’s signature red and white polka dots, and perused Disney-themed oven mitts, stuffed animals and R2-D2 mugs. — Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs
North and South Carolina declare states of emergency.
With forecasters now expecting the storm to move north up the coast before making landfall, the governors of North and South Carolina have declared states of emergency, adding to those already declared in all of Florida and in 12 counties in Georgia.
“North Carolinians should prepare, and listen to local leaders for updates on severe weather. Please take the time now to prepare for possible effects of #Dorian,” Gov. Roy Cooper wrote in a Twitter message Saturday night. Several hours earlier, Gov. Henry McMaster of South Carolina told his state’s residents not to take the storm lightly.
“Given the strength and unpredictability of the storm, we must prepare for every possible scenario,” Mr. McMaster said in a statement. “State assets are being mobilized now and Team South Carolina is working around the clock to be ready, if necessary. We encourage all South Carolinians who may be impacted by Hurricane Dorian to be vigilant and prepare now — there is no reason for delay.”
The National Hurricane Center said some tracking models suggest that the storm may make landfall near Cape Fear, N.C., on Thursday or Friday. Though its winds are expected to have weakened somewhat, the storm could still lash the coastline with winds of up to 80 miles an hour, and could dump as much as 10 inches of rain on coastal areas of North Carolina. — Timothy Williams
Here are Quick Links; Resources; Tips and Tools to hopefully Help You if you or someone you know may be affected by this storm:
Article content from NY Times; Collier County Gov and from our personal experiences.
In 2017 we had Hurricane Irma come through southwest Florida giving us a direct hit; Barry & Kim encountered a large amount of damage at the time as the eye passed over us, it was the worst recorded hurricane in history, at that time, then Hurricane Michael hit the FL Panhandle, where building codes were not as strengent and where we witnessed more damage than we had witnesses in SWFL. Now we have Hurricane Dorian coming towards Floridas East Coast as a catagory 4; now Cat 5; not sure what affect it will have on SW FL; but the Florida East Coast, Georgia East coast, the Carolinas, and many other areas will need to remain on alert and be prepared.
Here’s what you may need to know too; from the New York Times:
Also; please check out the other blogs, and tabs to many other Links, Updates, Reports & Stats that we have here on our informational website. ☘
We hope that you find the information useful. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact Barry or Kim with the Hoey Team ☘ brokered by eXp Realty
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